Thanks for this — but I don't buy the idea that Poland was as well placed against the Germans as Ukraine was against Russia today. Throughout WWII the Germans did twice as much damage to their opponents than was done to them in pretty much every land battle they fought. They were a ferocious and phenomenally effective enemy in battle with a brand new strategy — blitzkrieg. The Russians in 2022 — not so much.
This was challenging, educational and informative to read, thanks! It definitely made me appreciate the last two years differently. I look forward to your posts, keep them coming.
> In February 2022 most observers, myself included, believed Ukraine would fall relatively quickly.
Really? I remember thinking early on that it was completely nuts, couldn't be anything better than a Pyrric victory, and would probably end in a few months when Putin realized he was seriously fighting the entire Western world.
> The upside here is that no one has used nuclear weapons in Ukraine (yet)
I doubt that was ever on the table - you don't usually nuke territory you want to reclaim. Putin was threatening to nuke everybody else.
> This was the infamous Munich Agreement.
Well, not that famous; I'd never heard of it.
> Even if the Russians eke out a win in the end they will be weaker at the war's end than at its start. Not only does this limit Russia's abilities to invade other countries, it also serves as a signal to other potential aggressors to think twice before they act. This is undoubtedly a win for the international community.
This is a very well argued point, and the conclusion to an impressive post!
Reading this to my wife, however, Mrs. Apple Pie pointed out that the basic fact remains: Victory is still victory. If Putin manages to grab eastern Ukraine, he will have shown that Russia gets what it wants without concern for the consequences. Ukraine's allies don't care about what happened to Russia because they aren't Russia; they experience having poured resources into a losing war. The next time Russia tries to force its own will on the world, will the world have the will to resist?
Btw, my last comment sounded mean — I really liked the post — just one nit pick.
Thanks for this — but I don't buy the idea that Poland was as well placed against the Germans as Ukraine was against Russia today. Throughout WWII the Germans did twice as much damage to their opponents than was done to them in pretty much every land battle they fought. They were a ferocious and phenomenally effective enemy in battle with a brand new strategy — blitzkrieg. The Russians in 2022 — not so much.
This was challenging, educational and informative to read, thanks! It definitely made me appreciate the last two years differently. I look forward to your posts, keep them coming.
> In February 2022 most observers, myself included, believed Ukraine would fall relatively quickly.
Really? I remember thinking early on that it was completely nuts, couldn't be anything better than a Pyrric victory, and would probably end in a few months when Putin realized he was seriously fighting the entire Western world.
> The upside here is that no one has used nuclear weapons in Ukraine (yet)
I doubt that was ever on the table - you don't usually nuke territory you want to reclaim. Putin was threatening to nuke everybody else.
> This was the infamous Munich Agreement.
Well, not that famous; I'd never heard of it.
> Even if the Russians eke out a win in the end they will be weaker at the war's end than at its start. Not only does this limit Russia's abilities to invade other countries, it also serves as a signal to other potential aggressors to think twice before they act. This is undoubtedly a win for the international community.
This is a very well argued point, and the conclusion to an impressive post!
Reading this to my wife, however, Mrs. Apple Pie pointed out that the basic fact remains: Victory is still victory. If Putin manages to grab eastern Ukraine, he will have shown that Russia gets what it wants without concern for the consequences. Ukraine's allies don't care about what happened to Russia because they aren't Russia; they experience having poured resources into a losing war. The next time Russia tries to force its own will on the world, will the world have the will to resist?
"Why did the Soviets not invade Poland already in August, when the pact with Germany was signed?"
Because the soviets were fighting an undeclared war with Japan on the Mongolia-Manchukuo border.
Hahaha...
This is satire, right?