There is a theory that the demographic transition acts like a filter on people who are genetically less interested in having children but eventually pro-natal genes from the others will win out and TFR will boom. The french and secular jews were the first to go through fertility collapse so maybe their improved TFRs are the light at the end of the tunnel.
>>In general, shaming people for lifestyle choices is taboo in individualistic, Western societies. But there is one exception: Parents. Since they don't act as individuals, but are responsible for the wellbeing of other individuals, parents are legitimate objects of shame. All moralists know this. Whoever feels like shaming some group of people, is likely to pick parents who are not good enough one way or another. In itself, this makes people anxious not to have children before they have assembled enough social capital to parry all or most shameful situations. This probably explains a good deal of the increase in the age of new parents.
I agree with you assessment but would put the weight more on that I think that the norms are such that most young people have other prospects and options. Status is definitely a factor here but it's also that there are so many things you can do with your life at that age that feels more interesting to young people in modern metropolitan society. And having children seems boring AND low status at the age of 21. Shaming plays an indirect role in that the the feeling is that the people that do are either religious, poor or lack any ambition for themselves and their future. For many people at that age it is also hard to know that you've "met the right one" and it feels irresponsible to try to have children when you're not even done studying.. (To your point of raising the bar)
So it's like we have postponed adulthood for almost everyone in modern society?
> > deny them all leisure activities except Torah studies.
I think this is a bit of an exaggeration, though it is mostly true for boys post elementary school. The study of Talmud is very intense (and invigorating).
In Israel, Haredim are opposed to organized sports as they associate it with secular culture. However, I believe the children are free to play for a significant portion of the day, though I am not familiar with the exact details. Perhaps you know more than I do.
You're point that shame plus subsidies equals perverse incentives for the worst of people, is a very good one.
Online in mom communities, there can be dynamics of ridiculous levels of shame over minor things, and others where pretty much no parenting choices are allowed to be shamed. In the latter communities, the taboo for shaming topics include (but ar not limited to): quantity of children, breast or formula, daycare or nanny or SAHM, having a breakdown, gentle parenting, schedules or lack thereof, cosleeping or not (safely!), seeking therapy/mental health issues, divorce, gender nonconforming stuff.
Compromising car seat safety, stomach sleeping for babies, corporal punishment, being judgmental about or towards other moms are very very frowned upon though.
Have you read any Brian Caplan on Lazy parenting? It's not exactly the same as what you are saying, but it might connect. It's something like "Kids are fun and you have less control as a parent than you think, so just do a decent loving job and everything will work out OK. You shouldn't be so stressed about having kids - many parents are stressing themselves out for no good reason."
FWIW In the US certain groups (e.g. Mormons) have much higher fertility that the rest of the nation.
But yes. Overall society in the developed world has made the perfect the enemy of the good regarding children. "If you can't give your children a perfect life then you shouldn't have any"
>> After all, there is no shame in waiting. There is also no shame in having only one or two children or in having no children at all.
I believe the elimination of non-parent shaming is as important, if not more, than the introduction of parent shaming. Back in the day, it was just not ok to be single and childless at certain age, and the fear of this shame drove people to enter relationships, marry and have children.
A generation ago, it was a common trope to hear older parents push or encourage a young married couple to have (more) children. Now it seems like it's the total opposite - children are discouraged by the older generation.
What I think happened is that the generation of my parents (I'm 34) was first encouraged to have children by their parents, and they did. Then, parent shaming kicked in and so our parents were shamed (more or less - no parent is perfect and, as noted before, the standards were and still are incredibly high). Now, feeling cheated by the society and their parents, our parents discourage us from having children, to protect us from the shame they experienced themselves.
I'm not super qualified to comment on this, but based on my one summer living in Jerusalem ten years ago, when I visiting a few ultra-orthodox neighborhoods, there's a real antipathy between the ultra-orthodox and secular Jews. They are seen as welfare-exploiting, draft-dodging, dusty old "black hats," not as aspirational examples.
There is a theory that the demographic transition acts like a filter on people who are genetically less interested in having children but eventually pro-natal genes from the others will win out and TFR will boom. The french and secular jews were the first to go through fertility collapse so maybe their improved TFRs are the light at the end of the tunnel.
>>In general, shaming people for lifestyle choices is taboo in individualistic, Western societies. But there is one exception: Parents. Since they don't act as individuals, but are responsible for the wellbeing of other individuals, parents are legitimate objects of shame. All moralists know this. Whoever feels like shaming some group of people, is likely to pick parents who are not good enough one way or another. In itself, this makes people anxious not to have children before they have assembled enough social capital to parry all or most shameful situations. This probably explains a good deal of the increase in the age of new parents.
I agree with you assessment but would put the weight more on that I think that the norms are such that most young people have other prospects and options. Status is definitely a factor here but it's also that there are so many things you can do with your life at that age that feels more interesting to young people in modern metropolitan society. And having children seems boring AND low status at the age of 21. Shaming plays an indirect role in that the the feeling is that the people that do are either religious, poor or lack any ambition for themselves and their future. For many people at that age it is also hard to know that you've "met the right one" and it feels irresponsible to try to have children when you're not even done studying.. (To your point of raising the bar)
So it's like we have postponed adulthood for almost everyone in modern society?
Thanks for the shoutout for Haredim!
> > deny them all leisure activities except Torah studies.
I think this is a bit of an exaggeration, though it is mostly true for boys post elementary school. The study of Talmud is very intense (and invigorating).
In Israel, Haredim are opposed to organized sports as they associate it with secular culture. However, I believe the children are free to play for a significant portion of the day, though I am not familiar with the exact details. Perhaps you know more than I do.
You're point that shame plus subsidies equals perverse incentives for the worst of people, is a very good one.
Online in mom communities, there can be dynamics of ridiculous levels of shame over minor things, and others where pretty much no parenting choices are allowed to be shamed. In the latter communities, the taboo for shaming topics include (but ar not limited to): quantity of children, breast or formula, daycare or nanny or SAHM, having a breakdown, gentle parenting, schedules or lack thereof, cosleeping or not (safely!), seeking therapy/mental health issues, divorce, gender nonconforming stuff.
Compromising car seat safety, stomach sleeping for babies, corporal punishment, being judgmental about or towards other moms are very very frowned upon though.
Have you read any Brian Caplan on Lazy parenting? It's not exactly the same as what you are saying, but it might connect. It's something like "Kids are fun and you have less control as a parent than you think, so just do a decent loving job and everything will work out OK. You shouldn't be so stressed about having kids - many parents are stressing themselves out for no good reason."
FWIW In the US certain groups (e.g. Mormons) have much higher fertility that the rest of the nation.
But yes. Overall society in the developed world has made the perfect the enemy of the good regarding children. "If you can't give your children a perfect life then you shouldn't have any"
>> After all, there is no shame in waiting. There is also no shame in having only one or two children or in having no children at all.
I believe the elimination of non-parent shaming is as important, if not more, than the introduction of parent shaming. Back in the day, it was just not ok to be single and childless at certain age, and the fear of this shame drove people to enter relationships, marry and have children.
A generation ago, it was a common trope to hear older parents push or encourage a young married couple to have (more) children. Now it seems like it's the total opposite - children are discouraged by the older generation.
What I think happened is that the generation of my parents (I'm 34) was first encouraged to have children by their parents, and they did. Then, parent shaming kicked in and so our parents were shamed (more or less - no parent is perfect and, as noted before, the standards were and still are incredibly high). Now, feeling cheated by the society and their parents, our parents discourage us from having children, to protect us from the shame they experienced themselves.
I'm not super qualified to comment on this, but based on my one summer living in Jerusalem ten years ago, when I visiting a few ultra-orthodox neighborhoods, there's a real antipathy between the ultra-orthodox and secular Jews. They are seen as welfare-exploiting, draft-dodging, dusty old "black hats," not as aspirational examples.
But I think your broader point stands!