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Keith's avatar

All of your essays are so interesting. You always think of new and convincing angles from which to see familiar things. I'm not sure how you manage to tear away the veil of familiarity and see things as a clear-eyed alien might. But you do. Great and original stuff.

Performative Bafflement's avatar

I really enjoyed the article, but don't really buy the "women don't have multiple kids because they need to preserve their mate value, in the ceaseless war of all against all in the mating market" explanation.

I mean, as you point out, women initiate most divorces. And more specifically, "most" means 70% of divorces (at least in the US).

Second, they're manifestly NOT preserving their mate value - age is a much bigger factor for mate value for women, and most people in the world get fat after marriage. People would be MUCH more serious about working out, eating well, and taking care of health if "preserving mate value" was an actual concern or motivation, but manifestly, married people don't do this, whether or not they have kids.

https://imgur.com/a/EgkHNzB

On "marriage makes you fat" the meta analysis here, with ~200k couples and ~100k matched singles across 18 countries, shows a strong effect size of marriage on obesity - 1.7 odds ratio, up to 2.5 odds ratio in economic downturns.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/39057117/

It includes a study of same-sex twins from China that finds even among twins, marriage increases BMI for both sexes, regardless of genetic and common environmental factors.

In general, less than half (45%) of divorced women in the USA have remarried 5 years later. Remarriage is getting steeply less prevalent since the 80's. See the graph here:

https://imgur.com/a/Ehtu9BJ

From here:

https://www.bgsu.edu/ncfmr/resources/data/family-profiles/reynolds-remarriaage-US-geographic-variation-2019-fp-21-18.html

The more likely explanation for having fewer kids is that it's associated with female education and workforce participation, and not really correlated with divorce, because we see the same drops in fertility in every developed country, even when base divorce rates vary by as much as 4x (Japan has half the divorce rate of the USA, Italy has roughly a quarter the divorce rate, Singapore has a 1.5x higher divorce rate, but all three have much worse fertility rates than the US).

Even in the Philippines, where until a couple of weeks ago divorce has literally been illegal, fertility has been declining pretty much directly in line with female education.

https://imgur.com/a/0Abli1D

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