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Sol Hando's avatar

I think it would be interesting to consider how one can be both delusional, and irrational, at the same time.

Trump's delusions (and Musk, and Jobs, and [Insert improbably successful person here]) can occasionally produce great results, but the vast majority of the time, they lead to taking too big of a bet, and ending up destitute. I don't know too much about Trump's rise to power, but for Musk, he took multiple extremely risk bets, way in excess of what could be considered reasonable at the time, and only reached stability with any of his companies by the skin of his teeth.

For some of us, I think the value is in understanding how we can be selective delusional, while still preserving enough practicality and rationality to protect ourselves from truly no-win and terribly negative-EV bets. People talking about Steve Job's "reality distortion field" where a person can quite literally make those around them believe in what seems counter to what is rationally possible, and this can produce extremely impressive results. The benefit of being delusional seems to require actually believing in it, so I often think of how one can have this double-think, where they are delusional about certain things, in order to distort reality around them to their benefit, while also being practical enough to take the right bets, without losing a true belief in one's own delusion.

Maybe trigger-based delusion? Like how a method actor can trigger something in their heads that makes them embody the character they are playing? To think like a delusional person, to act like one, and to actually embody the character that is a more delusional version of yourself? I don't know if this would actually work, or if it would be an empty-belief or not, but how I see method acting described, it seems like actors really embody the thoughts and mannerisms of the character they are playing, not just the external portrayal.

Arnold Kling's avatar

Thanks for another brilliant essay.

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