Empty Spain

Where are all the people in rural Spain? Maybe ChatGPT knows the answer.

Map from Eurostat.

Above is a map of Europe with the population density per square kilometer superimposed. For a map lover there are many things to ponder about in this map. But one of the most perplexing things must surely be the case of Spain. While the rest of Europe is a rather uniform yellow or orange, signifying a sparsely but evenly populated countryside, Spain is a gloomy gray, meaning empty, zero inhabitants per square kilometer.

There are of course people in Spain as well. The entirety of Spain is dotted by small but glaring red and purple dots. These are large and small cities, where the entire Spanish population seem to be clustered. Why has Spain become the most urbanized country in Europe?

This question has riddled me for several years now, since I first saw a version of this map. Irritatingly enough, there is probably an answer to the question. At least there is a book written about it: La España vacía (Empty Spain) written by journalist Sergio del Molino in 2016.

It is great when there is a book about the exact topic you have been wondering about. There is only one problem with Sergio del Molino's book: It is in Spanish, a language I do not read, and there is no English translation.

In the bad old days, this was an insurmountable obstacle. I am not about to learn Spanish just to be able to read this one book. But in this modern age there is a new alternative. Why not let an AI explain the book to me?

AI to the rescue

The go to AI today, or at least the go to AI of today that I know of is ChatGPT. AI is supposed to take the jobs of real humans and since I hardly have time to do my job as a blog writer (paid blog writer to boot) this should be a perfect fit. I can just let ChatGPT write the article for me. Or at least help me with the research. Time to practice what everyone preaches:

Anders L: Can you make a summary of Sergio del Molino's book La España vacía?

ChatGPT: "La España vacía" ("The Empty Spain") is a non-fiction book written by Sergio del Molino, a Spanish writer and journalist. The book explores the concept of depopulation and the struggles faced by rural areas in Spain.

The central theme of "La España vacía" revolves around the phenomenon of depopulation in Spain, particularly in its rural regions. Sergio del Molino delves into the history, geography, and societal implications of the emptying of these areas. He reflects on the decline of small towns and villages, the migration of inhabitants to urban centers, and the subsequent consequences for the communities left behind.

Del Molino draws on personal experiences, interviews, research, and travels throughout Spain to depict the challenges faced by rural Spain. He examines the economic, social, and cultural impact of depopulation on these regions. Through vivid descriptions and anecdotes, he portrays the abandonment of villages, the loss of local industries, the decline of traditional ways of life, and the resulting isolation and marginalization.

The author also explores the relationship between urban and rural areas, highlighting the disparities, stereotypes, and misunderstandings that exist between them. He delves into the historical factors, political decisions, and societal attitudes that have contributed to the neglect and underdevelopment of rural Spain.

In "La España vacía," Sergio del Molino offers a thought-provoking analysis of the complex issues surrounding depopulation in Spain. The book aims to raise awareness about the challenges faced by rural communities, stimulate dialogue, and prompt discussions on potential solutions to revitalize these areas and bridge the urban-rural divide.

That was not very impressive. ChatGPT basically gave me the back of the book summary, complete with sales talk and cliffhangers advertising the important stuff but without actually giving anything away. Luckily, this is not the actual back of the book, but rather an AI (which might, or might not have access to the complete text of the book, I am not certain of which yet). This gives me the opportunity to narrow down my questions and hopefully get better answers.

Anders L: Why is rural Spain, according to Sergio del Molino, much more sparsely populated than the rest of rural Europe?

ChatGPT: Sergio del Molino attributes the greater depopulation and sparseness of rural Spain compared to other rural areas in Europe to several factors. Here are some of the reasons he presents in his book "La España vacía":

1. Historical Factors: Del Molino suggests that Spain's historical context, including the Reconquista (the Christian reconquest of the Iberian Peninsula from Muslim rule) and subsequent centralization of power, has played a role in shaping the demographic patterns. This historical process led to a concentration of resources and population in specific regions, leaving other areas relatively neglected.

2. Geography and Climate: Spain's diverse and challenging geographical and climatic conditions are seen as deterrents to settlement and agricultural development. The presence of mountainous regions, arid landscapes, and a lack of fertile land in certain areas has made it more difficult for rural communities to thrive, leading to depopulation.

3. Economic Disparities: Del Molino argues that Spain has faced significant economic disparities between its regions, with a concentration of wealth and resources in a few major urban centers. The lack of economic opportunities and investment in rural areas has led to migration and depopulation, exacerbating the disparities between rural and urban regions.

4. Centralized Governance: Spain's centralized governance structure has resulted in the concentration of political power, resources, and decision-making in the hands of the central government and major cities. This has often led to the neglect of rural areas and a focus on urban development, further exacerbating depopulation trends.

5. Cultural Shifts and Perception: The perception that rural areas offer limited opportunities, cultural experiences, and amenities has influenced migration patterns. Del Molino argues that societal values and the allure of modern urban lifestyles and consumerism have played a role in drawing people away from rural regions.

It's important to note that these factors are not unique to Spain, and similar challenges of rural depopulation can be observed in other European countries. However, Del Molino suggests that the combination and intensity of these factors in Spain have contributed to the greater sparseness and depopulation in rural areas compared to some other parts of rural Europe.

Had I been a journalist trying to fill my daily quota I would have been salivating by now. ChatGPT is obviously very good at creating grammatically correct text on vaguely the right topic. However, I have no quota to fill (in fact I feel obliged to already at this point apologize for the unusual amounts of bullshit you poor readers have been forced to wade through in this article). And ChatGPT's answers are not impressive at all.

Of course, I can not know what Sergio del Molino's book says about this topic. But surely it can not be as abysmal as this. Blaming the Reconquista more than 500 years ago is a weak argument no matter how you frame it. And Spain's agricultural sector is definitely not under-developed. According to FAO Spain is the world's second biggest net exporter of food, which seems plausible considering that most of Europe survives on Spanish vegetables throughout the winter.

More to the point, Spain is very similar to neighboring Portugal historically, demographically and climatologically. Even culturally and economically there are obvious similarities. But Portugal is like the rest of Europe when it comes to rural population. Only Spain has a completely depopulated countryside.

Going human

Two things I can think of that might set Spain apart from the rest of Europe are the civil war in the 1930s that devastated rural Spain and the overheated real estate sector of the 2000s. It would greatly help to know when Spain's countryside was depopulated. Why not ask ChatGPT about it?

Anders L: According to Sergio del Molino, when was rural Spain primarily depopulated?

ChatGPT: Sergio del Molino argues that the depopulation of rural Spain primarily occurred during the second half of the 20th century, particularly from the 1950s onwards. This period saw significant changes in Spain, including rapid urbanization, industrialization, and economic shifts.

During the 1950s and 1960s, Spain experienced a large-scale migration from rural areas to urban centers, driven by factors such as the demand for labor in growing industries and the allure of better living conditions in cities. Many rural residents left their ancestral villages and farms in search of job opportunities and a more modern lifestyle, resulting in a substantial decline in rural populations.

This rural flight intensified in subsequent decades as Spain underwent further economic transformations and social changes. The mechanization of agriculture, changes in land use, and the decline of traditional farming practices also contributed to the depopulation of rural areas.

Del Molino emphasizes that the consequences of depopulation continue to be felt in contemporary rural Spain. The impact of this demographic shift on the cultural fabric, landscape, and social dynamics of these regions is a key focus of his analysis in "La España vacía."

This was sort of the expected answer to that question. But it takes us no closer to a real explanation to why Spain is the odd man out in Europe. Every European country saw rapid industrial development and a decline in traditional farming practices during the decades after 1945.

This far, ChatGPT has produced a lot of text but without giving any hints to why rural Spain lacks the people that are present in the rest of rural Europe. It has not even been very good at explaining what Sergioi del Molino's book is about. In fact, I am starting to question whether ChatGPT has even read the Sergio del Molino book.

Anders L: Can you quote the last paragraph from the 148th page of Sergio del Molino's book La España vacía?

ChatGPT: I'm sorry, but as an AI language model, my responses are generated based on a mixture of licensed data, data created by human trainers, and publicly available data. I don't have direct access to specific books or their page numbers. Therefore, I cannot provide you with a quote from the last paragraph of the 148th page of Sergio del Molino's book "La España vacía." My previous response about the book was based on general knowledge about its content and themes.

Time for disappointment

I feel a bit silly now. I am not entirely sure why I expected ChatGPT to have access to published books. Perhaps because books are such an integral part of human knowledge that it seems hopeless to try to be knowledgeable without having actually read books.

It is also surprising for strictly practical reasons. Books are quite accessible. All books these days are available in digital format and contain significant amounts of information for the relatively paltry sums you have to fork out to access them. Had I been an AI developer I would no doubt have added as many books as possible to the AI training sets.

Actually, there is nothing stopping me from being an AI developer. Since a few months back it is perfectly possible to get your own open source AI and train it as you see fit. Had I not been severely time-restricted I would have gotten myself one of those private AIs and trained it to read books for me. That would have been something.

But what about Spain?

Since ChatGPT seems unable to solve the riddle of the Spanish countryside we are forced to do it the old-fashioned way: Asking Google and Wikipedia.

With Google's help it is very easy to find statistics of the rural population in Spain, like in this graph:

Graph from Macrotrends using data from the World Bank.

Unfortunately this gives no particular clues. The depopulation of rural Spain seems very similar to the depopulation of all of rural Europe. Urbanization was strongest in the 1950s and 60s and declined after that. There is a slight repopulation of rural Spain from 2000 to 2008, which might be due to the overvalued property market forcing Spaniards to seek habitation further from the cities.

The above graph shows no spectacular changes in the rural population of Spain. Which is in itself interesting. Spain has always had a rather special countryside, mostly owned by absentee landlords and largely focused on sheep rearing light on manual labor. If we could somehow check the historical population of Spain we might find out if there has ever been a bustling Spanish countryside.

In this case, Wikipedia can help us. For some reason Wikipedia has multiple maps of the population density of Spain from the present day to the 18th century:

Map from Wikimedia Commons. 

Map from Wikimedia Commons. 

During the 220 years between the two population maps there seems to have been a slight shift south. But the general tendency is absolutely no tendency at all. The depopulated Spanish interior was depopulated already in the 18th century.

What was the problem again?

The population density map at the start of this article is striking, but also a bit special. It measures population density per square kilometer when a more normal population density map measures per region. How does Spain fare if we look at it through the latter type of map?

Map from Eurostat. NUTS (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) is a very European system of synchronizing regions across the entirety of Europe to enable comparisons of regions of similar size.

Well, well, well. It turns out rural Spain is not so empty after all. In fact, it is about as populated as other rural areas of Europe outside of the Blue Banana. The only thing marking rural Spain out, except the fact that journalists are writing books about it, seems to be the fact that Spain's rural population is tightly packed into villages and small towns, instead of being spread out over the land as in the rest of Europe.

But why does Spain's rural population cluster together when the rest of Europe is not? There could be many reasons. The civil war might have forced people to cluster together for defense, although I can find no indications this was the case.

Another, more plausible explanation is that Spanish agriculture is based on large estates where laborers were forced to live in densely populated villages to allow the landlords to control them better. This type of settlement patterns can be very hard to reverse even if ownership patterns change.

And the ownership patterns in Spain have not really changed much. The juggernaut that is modern Spanish agriculture is mostly based along the coasts of southern and southeastern Spain and it is highly dependent on immigrant labor. In fact, immigrant agricultural laborers are so prevalent in southern Spain that they have their own language. If these laborers are registered in the population data at all, they live clustered together in dormitory villages, not unlike manual laborers throughout history.

Spain's large-scale agriculture has a long history. A very long history, actually. Large agricultural estates in Spain are called latifundios. The word latifundio comes from the Latin word latifundium. If we look at Wikipedia's page about latifundia we see something interesting. According to Wikipedia Roman latifundia were characteristic of Egypt, northwestern Africa, Sicily, Greece and Spain. If we take a closer look at the population density map at the beginning of this article we see that Spain is not really the only gray area in (non-arctic) Europe. Another notably gray region is Sicily. And Greece.

It is probably unfair to place all the blame of Spain’s rural depopulation on the Romans. Still, it is fascinating that it is possible to trace modern political problems to features 2000 years back in history. That kind of logical tracing is beyond ChatGPT. But it is no match for the human mind. 

A field in Extremadura, western Spain. From Wikimedia Commons.